Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: fiscal slippage won’t spook bond markets Financial markets are unlikely to be spooked by signs of fiscal slippage in Poland – compared with the rest of Europe, the government’s finances are a picture of health. In fact, we think bond yields... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Threat of financial contagion eases, but risks remain The recent news that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds has reduced the risk that banks in Emerging Europe will be hit by financial contagion from the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey steps into easing mode, but impact likely to be limited Today’s cut in the Turkish overnight lending rate is partly cosmetic and the impact on domestic demand is likely to be limited. We wouldn’t rule out a few more steps to narrow the “interest rate... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers focussed on inflation risks for now The surprise decision this afternoon by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates reflects growing concerns over rising inflation among policymakers. Another hike in rates is possible by... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update WTO tariff reductions will have little impact on Russian inflation The recent revision of Russia’s tariff system as part of its WTO accession is unlikely to have a marked impact on inflation, which is still on course to breach the Central Bank’s end-year target of 5... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Export boom keeps Turkey out of recession Q2 GDP data showed that while domestic demand is still contracting, a boom in exports has kept the Turkish economy out of recession. Admittedly, it looks like the economy has weakened in Q3, while... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP hit by austerity and falling confidence Final Q2 GDP data confirmed that weak domestic demand was the main drag on growth in Central and South Eastern, coming on the back of fiscal austerity and falling confidence. But with external... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Orban scuppers IMF deal (again) Today’s statement by Hungarian PM Victor Orban that his government will reject the conditions attached to an IMF programme is unlikely to spell the end of negotiations between the two parties, but it... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate cut on the cards for next month Today’s post-MPC press conference gave the clearest sign yet that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is set to start cutting interest rates in order to counter the recent downturn in the economy. We... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little respite for manufacturing in Central Europe While manufacturing in Emerging Europe does not seem to have collapsed to the same extent as in Western Europe, August’s PMIs remain at levels consistent with a recession in industry in Poland and the... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Poland set to prompt rate cuts Poland remains one of Emerging Europe’s strongest performing economies. But a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2 means that it is looking likely that the National Bank will cut interest rates by... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary shift signals bank FX concerns In the past few months, the Turkish central bank has added to its policy toolkit by allowing banks to hold foreign currencies and gold in place of lira as required reserves for their lira liabilities... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates but further easing likely to be limited The National Bank of Hungary’s surprise decision to cut interest rates today suggests that further easing could be on the way. But unless and until an IMF/EU deal is agreed, anything more than a... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian slowdown starting to spread beyond industry July’s activity data, released earlier today, suggest that the Russian economy slowed further at the start of Q3 and may now be growing at around 3% y/y – down from rates of close to 5% in the first... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
