Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia takes steps to limit fallout from ruble crisis The Central Bank of Russia has this afternoon announced a raft of measures that, while on their own aresmall, collectively suggest that the authorities have at last started to develop a strategy for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Russia’s banks The ruble crisis has sparked fears of contagion to Russia’s financial sector and a meltdown in the economy. A rise in interbank interest rates tends to be best indicator of stress in the banking... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble’s collapse trigger capital controls in Russia? The renewed sharp falls in the ruble today will fuel speculation that the authorities could resort to increasingly unorthodox measures to help stabilise the currency, including capital controls. But... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off sparks fears of more radical policy action The ruble has continued to fall in spite of the rise in Russian interest rates, raising speculation that capital controls may be introduced. While we wouldn’t rule these out, we still think they are... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR delivers another large rate hike – more to come The 100bp hike in Russian interest rates today was the minimum the central bank (CBR) had to deliver given the recent slide in the ruble . With the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC swayed by improving growth outlook The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, struck a dovish note. But it also stressed that the strength of the economy had eased... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off eases, while Ukraine’s bonds slump A combination of interest rate hikes, a move towards a fully floating ruble and steps to limit the provision of ruble liquidity appear to have arrested the slump in Russia’s currency. Elsewhere, the... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy in Hungary to stay loose The National Bank of Hungary left interest rates unchanged today and, in spite of negative inflation, the MPC appears to be in no mood to resume policy easing. But equally, there will be little... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
