Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis to force larger Russian bank recapitalisations The collapse in the ruble appears to have wiped out a large chunk of the Russian banking sector’s capital and we think the government will need to expand its current recapitalisation plans... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB QE provides modest bump to markets The ECB’s larger-than-expected quantitative easing programme has led to a rally in Central European equities and currencies, although this hasn’t been substantial. Meanwhile, the yields on Ukrainian... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian government starting to face up to fiscal realities Today’s meeting between President Putin and government ministers to discuss anti-crisis measures and budget amendments suggests that the authorities are finally starting to acknowledge the new... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, but monetary conditions to stay tight Today’s 50bp cut in the Turkish one-week repo rate, to 7.75%, doesn’t necessarily mark an easing of monetary conditions. It’s much more important to look at interbank interest rates, and these have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cuts on the horizon Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.00% was clearly on a knife edge and, with the economy set to remain in deflation for much of this year... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in oil prices means deflation for most in 2015 The sharp drop in oil prices will push much of Central and South Eastern Europe into deflation over thecoming months and we have revised down our inflation forecasts accordingly. However, for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure building for divided Polish MPC to cut rates The immediate outlook for Polish interest rates has been muddied by the increasingly acrimonious divisions that have opened up within the MPC. On balance it looks more likely that the Council will opt... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE now better placed to weather a Greek exit from the euro-zone Renewed fears of a Greek exit from the euro-zone have raised concerns about contagion to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This is understandable. After all, when the threat of euro-zone break-up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate cuts, but spooked by Greece The National Bank of Romania’s Governor, Mugur Isarescu , struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, which suggests that the interest rate cut earlier today to a fresh record low of 2... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russia crisis: one chart to watch The Russian ruble has rallied over the past 24 hours, but there are growing signs that the crisis is spreading to the banking sector. In particular, interbank interest rates have jumped to over 27%... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Instant reaction to Putin’s press conference The mounting economic crisis in Russia meant that there has been greater-than-usual focus on President Putin’s annual press conference, which is taking place this morning. In this Update we provide... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
