Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate cuts, but spooked by Greece The National Bank of Romania’s Governor, Mugur Isarescu , struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, which suggests that the interest rate cut earlier today to a fresh record low of 2... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russia crisis: one chart to watch The Russian ruble has rallied over the past 24 hours, but there are growing signs that the crisis is spreading to the banking sector. In particular, interbank interest rates have jumped to over 27%... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Instant reaction to Putin’s press conference The mounting economic crisis in Russia meant that there has been greater-than-usual focus on President Putin’s annual press conference, which is taking place this morning. In this Update we provide... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia takes steps to limit fallout from ruble crisis The Central Bank of Russia has this afternoon announced a raft of measures that, while on their own aresmall, collectively suggest that the authorities have at last started to develop a strategy for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Russia’s banks The ruble crisis has sparked fears of contagion to Russia’s financial sector and a meltdown in the economy. A rise in interbank interest rates tends to be best indicator of stress in the banking... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble’s collapse trigger capital controls in Russia? The renewed sharp falls in the ruble today will fuel speculation that the authorities could resort to increasingly unorthodox measures to help stabilise the currency, including capital controls. But... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off sparks fears of more radical policy action The ruble has continued to fall in spite of the rise in Russian interest rates, raising speculation that capital controls may be introduced. While we wouldn’t rule these out, we still think they are... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR delivers another large rate hike – more to come The 100bp hike in Russian interest rates today was the minimum the central bank (CBR) had to deliver given the recent slide in the ruble . With the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
