Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe weathers EM sell-off well Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in oil prices mean for Russia? The latest plunge in global oil prices and the associated depreciation of the ruble have added to what was already a bleak picture for the Russian economy and reinforce our view that this year’s... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Prospect of fresh elections adds to headaches for Turkey Markets have reacted negatively to news that coalition negotiations between the two largest parties in Turkey have broken down and that fresh elections are now highly likely. While we don’t think... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to highlight divergence in the region The raft of preliminary second quarter GDP data due to be released this week in Emerging Europe is likely to show that the recession in Russia deepened, but that growth in Central and South Eastern... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at policy staying loose for longer The Czech MPC kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, but the Council dropped its strongest hint yet in the accompanying press release that extremely loose... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC cuts rates, but ruble concerns come to the fore The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its one-week repo rate by 50bp, to 11.0%, today, but the recent fall in the ruble triggered a clear shift in the Council’s tone, and policymakers are no longer... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble slump concerns CBR, but easing cycle likely to continue The move by Russia’s central bank to halt its foreign currency purchases suggests that policymakers have become increasingly concerned by the recent slump in the ruble. But even so, the impact on both... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian debt fears ease a little, but default still likely Fears about a near-term and potentially messy default by Ukraine eased a little this month, providing some respite for the country’s sovereign dollar debt. But even so, some form of default still... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, but hikes on horizon The statement accompanying today’s Turkish central bank decision, at which interest rates were lef tunchanged, made it clear that the MPC isn’t reading too much into June’s much sharper-than-expected... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russian industry? The collapse in Russian industrial output in the second quarter appears to have been driven by the unwinding of one-off supports to a couple of sectors, as well further weakness in domestic demand... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
