Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A bad month for the ruble, other currencies fared well The Russian ruble was the worst performing EM currency over the past month, tumbling by 6% against the US dollar on the back of the latest decline in oil prices. But currencies elsewhere in the region... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank waits for inflation drop before easing The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Russia, at which the repo rate was left unchanged, was decidedly cautious and it’s clear that policymakers are waiting for firmer signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes looming in Turkey The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but given the economy’s exposure to Fed tightening and with inflation set to rise even further, rate hikes look likely over the coming... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally on election in Turkey, but sell off in Poland The Turkish lira and stock market jumped in the immediate aftermath of the country’s election at the start of the month, which lifted the political uncertainty that had weighed on investors since June... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, the PiS and a populist shift Last month’s Polish election heralds a shift towards more populist policymaking under Law and Justice (PiS). In this Watch, we look at which areas are most likely to see a shift in policy and what the... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty causes Romanian MPC to sounds cautious The press conference following the Romanian MPC meeting earlier today confirmed our view that the resignation of the Prime Minister yesterday would prompt the Council to adopt a more cautious line... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets welcome AK victory, economic problems remain The Turkish lira and stock market have rallied following Sunday’s election results, which delivered the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of a small AK party majority in parliament. This has alleviated concerns... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s election Opinion polls suggest that Sunday’s parliamentary election in Turkey will deliver another hung parliament, and immediate attention is likely to concentrate on the likelihood of a coalition being... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to rate cuts The Russian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold today, but there was a clear shift in tone in the accompanying statement, suggesting that the MPC plans to resume the easing cycle... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
