Emerging Europe Economics Update Tough year lies ahead for Bulgaria Despite the recent jump in Bulgaria’s budget deficit, the fiscal risks are comparatively modest. Nonetheless, the economy still faces a tough time ahead, and we expect it to contract again this year. 7th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech interest rates to stay at record lows into 2011 Today’s surprise interest rate cut in the Czech Republic reflects the ongoing lack of underlying inflation pressures in the economy, and lends further support to our view that rates are likely to... 6th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where now for Romanian interest rates? While the National Bank of Romania appears to be reaching the end of its current easing cycle, with the economic recovery still facing significant headwinds, rate hikes remain a distant proposition. 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still pushing on a string Today’s 25bp interest rate cut in Russia will do little to spur lending in the real economy. And while policymakers are likely to cut interest rates further in the near-term, there is a good chance... 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the contagion risks from Greece Financial markets across the region have been hit by the latest developments in Greece, but contagion risks are greatest in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates cut again as Fidesz secures two-thirds majority The markets’ favourable reaction to Fidesz’s landslide election victory in Hungary will have been a key factor behind today’s decision by the National Bank (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.25... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas deal boosts prospects in Ukraine, but risks remain Today’s gas deal with Russia is undoubtedly a boost for the Ukrainian economy’s near-term prospects, and keeps it on course for an impressive bounce back this year. But with the new government yet to... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Concerns over a strong ruble unlikely to persist The pace of Russia’s recovery is likely to fade and the ruble is likely to weaken if, as we expect, oil prices fall back over the next year or so. 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal rule not the last word on budget discipline In the absence of a new IMF programme, a fiscal rule could help to reassure markets that Turkey remains committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. But even a well designed fiscal rule requires... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey sets out its exit strategy Earlier today the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) outlined its exit strategy from the additional liquidity measures it introduced during the economic crisis. These include plans to switch to a new... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three priorities for Ukraine’s new government A series of policy announcements that are due over the next week or so, including a draft 2010 Budget, should give a clearer idea of the priorities of Ukraine’s new government. Reforms in three areas... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fidesz romps to victory, but will inherit fiscal frailties The markets have welcomed Fidesz’s landslide victory in yesterday’s election in Hungary. But with a distinct lack of policy detail from the party so far, we remain only cautiously optimistic that its... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Who’s been hit hardest by the credit squeeze? On the whole, firms, rather than households, have borne the brunt of the credit squeeze in Emerging Europe. In fact, lending to consumers has already started to pick up in those countries with... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set to lead the region’s recovery Q4 2009 GDP data from Turkey support our view that it will be one of the best performing economies in the region over the next few years. Nonetheless, while growth should impress in the near-term, Q4... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary & Romania still playing catch-up The fact that policymakers in both Hungary and Romania are still cutting interest rates when their counterparts elsewhere in the world have begun to withdraw stimulus measures reflects the depth of... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
