Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey MPC meeting to focus on the lira The Central Bank of Turkey has announced that the MPC will hold an (unscheduled) interim meeting tomorrow, which, it seems, is likely to result in fresh measures to prevent a disorderly adjustment in... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 slowdown a sign of things to come Leading indicators suggest that annual growth slowed in pretty much every economy in the region in Q2 of this year. Unfortunately, rather than being just a temporary blip, we think that this is a sign... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production slows to a crawl The latest Manufacturing PMI data suggest that industrial production growth in the region all but ground to a halt in July. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian rates should still be down The National Bank of Hungary is in a bind. On the one hand, growth remains pretty sluggish. But on the other, the high level of Swiss franc-denominated household debt limits the scope for, and the... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth set to slow sharply Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its daily purchases of US$ should help to stabilise the lira in the very near term. But it does not tackle the underlying concern, namely... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update E.coli outbreak not the only disinflationary factor Inflation fell sharply in most countries in the region last month, due in large part to a surprise drop in food prices. This appears to have been driven by one-off factors relating to the outbreak of... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dip in Polish inflation takes pressure off NBP Poland has become the latest country in the region to report slower than expected inflation for June. Once again, the sharp drop in food prices appears to have been caused by one-off factors relating... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Emerging Europe stay under the radar? In contrast to governments in the euro-zone’s periphery, the economies of Emerging Europe are not facing a solvency crisis. However, large external financing requirements mean the region is vulnerable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflationary pressures retreat Although one-off factors such as the e.coli outbreak may be behind the sharp drop in prices of seasonal fruit and vegetables in June, today’s CPI data reveal few inflationary pressures in the region... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry likely to slow in the second half A decline in China's pig population at the turn of the year is now resulting in a surge in pork prices that probably pushed consumer price inflation above 6% y/y last month. Price pressures for non... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s twin deficits cloud an otherwise bright outlook Poland’s economy remains in something of a ‘sweet spot’ for now, but recent upward revisions to the current account shortfall reinforce our long-standing concerns about the country’s twin deficits. In... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates on ice Adding to dovish comments by monetary policy committee members, the statement following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold in Poland points to a prolonged pause in rate changes. The... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: Retail sales disappoint Today’s retail sales data for the Czech Republic continue to point to subdued domestic demand and the likelihood of only modest economic growth over the next couple of years. With fiscal consolidation... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing growth slowing, price pressures easing June’s Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the previously impressive recovery in the region’s industrial sector is now losing steam and that price pressures are starting to ease. 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth is unsustainable News that Turkish GDP grew by an above-consensus 11% y/y in Q1 of this year confirms what we already knew – the economy is overheating. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers stick to their guns The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold today and gave no hint that it will resort to more conventional measures to cool an economy that is showing clear signs of overheating. The key... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
