Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Commodities Update PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia’s rubles demand poses upside risk to gas prices Russia’s monopoly exporter of natural gas, Gazprom, suspended gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria this week because they refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles. There is some confusion about... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia palm oil ban Indonesia has caused turmoil in global commodity markets over the past week with its decision to ban exports of palm oil. However, given the importance of the sector to Indonesia’s economy and the... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Paying the price of high inflation We have revised our forecast for world growth this year to further below the consensus to reflect the growing ill effects of high inflation. While inflation should ease as the year goes on, the drag... 27th April 2022 · 47 mins read
Commodities Weekly European growth to drag on prices It has been an unusually quiet week for commodities, with less volatility than we have come to expect. The war in Ukraine continues to provide possible stresses for supply but, for now at least, it... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Europe turns to Africa to replace Russian gas European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. While the region’s gas producers – like Angola and Nigeria – will gain from the recent surge in global energy... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
