Commodities Weekly Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain In a week of relative financial market calm, there was a pause in the large, sentiment-driven swings that have characterised most commodity prices in recent weeks. Instead, prices seemed to take... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What's Danish for the "canary in the coal mine"? Denmark’s manufacturing PMI fell precipitously from 70.0 to a 27-month low of 38.0 in July. While Denmark's PMI is extremely volatile, this was its largest fall since 2008. And given that Denmark is a... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The rise and fall of Japan's energy imports Japan is still struggling to wean itself off fossil fuels despite a new government push to boost solar power. However, the country has become more energy efficient over the past decade, which has... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s prolonged IMF talks, OPEC+ fallout Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohamed Maait argued this week that any financing agreement with the IMF would be much smaller than the $15bn suggested by some analysts but, if anything, the drawn out nature... 4th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The fall in the trade deficit to an eight-month low of $79.6bn in June, from $84.9bn, leaves net trade well placed to support a rebound in GDP in the third quarter. But with the surveys consistent... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jun.) Export volumes outpaced import volumes in June but, with the survey-based export indices falling back, the outlook is growing more challenging. Together with the declines in commodity prices since... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Gold’s lustre to return in 2023 Having fallen sharply in Q2, we think that the gold price is now close to a cyclical trough. What’s more, the price should revive a little in 2023 as markets factor in the prospect of US monetary... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain Western sanctions have caused activity in certain sectors of Russia’s economy to collapse, but activity has held up reasonably well in key areas such as oil production and less import-dependent... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices rally, but room for further gains is limited The prices of most commodities across energy, metals and agriculturals rose this week. The common driver was investors dialling back their expectations of the aggressiveness of US monetary policy... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gazprom turns the screws Gazprom’s announcement this week that it is reducing the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 to only a fifth of its normal capacity has pushed European natural gas prices up once again and threatens... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy to slow more sharply than Treasurer expects While we expect the economy hold up a bit better than the Treasurer in the near-term, aggressive policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia will exacerbate the ongoing housing downturn... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Outlook Prices to find a floor While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months... 28th July 2022 · 40 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Egypt and the IMF, Fed decision Next week’s OPEC+ meeting may provide the first hints of the group’s production policy beyond September and if, as we expect, it opts to remove quotas, the Gulf stands to benefit most. Elsewhere, the... 28th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There were large increases in both crude and product exports in the latest data, which will add fuel to lobbyists’ calls for restrictions on exports while prices are high. 27th July 2022 · 2 mins read
