Commodities Update Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in July. High stocks of many commodities and growing domestic production dampened demand for imports. What’s more, the prospect of cooling domestic... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better economic news boosts industrial commodities A sharp rise in China’s July manufacturing PMI boosted the prices of most commodities last week, but we don’t think that the upturn in China’s economic activity will be sustained, given the increasing... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How strong is demand for coal, really? The lack of timely coal consumption data on a monthly basis – at least at a global level – makes it difficult to determine changes in coal demand in the short term. Our new Capital Economics World... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q2 & H1 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to the lowest level since 2009 in the first half of 2017. Higher prices, fading geopolitical risks and soft jewellery fabrication were the main factors behind the weakness in... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Rational exuberance We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices lead the way up It was generally good news for energy commodities in July. Oil prices jumped as stocks in the US slumped, the market grew concerned about the possibility of sanctions on Venezuela and the dollar fell... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another increase in refinery runs led to a fall in crude oil stocks last week. We expect refinery runs to remain high in the coming weeks. This should lead to a sharp drawdown in inventories and help... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals start Q3 on a strong note A weaker US dollar and stronger Chinese economic data boosted metals prices last month. Aluminium was the only exception. (See Chart.) In most cases, industrial metals prices are now more aligned with... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker US dollar boosts commodities The prices of most commodities rose last month. In part, this was due to a weaker dollar. But stronger economic activity data for China also played a role. We think that growth in China is likely to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture While the unofficial PMI data point to an acceleration in economic growth in July, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained, given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening. This view... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil and copper lead the way This week, the prices of most commodities benefited from a further weakening of the US dollar and data showing that China’s growth accelerated in Q2. But individual fundamentals also played a role. In... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: OPEC ‘cap’ will have little economic effect Nigeria’s agreement with OPEC to cap oil production is unlikely to have much impact on the economy; output was never likely to rise significantly above this level in any case. The key point is that... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks of most metals edge lower Exchange stocks of most metals fell over the last month. With the exception of copper and tin, inventories are now substantially lower than at the start of the year, pointing to tightening markets... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong export demand to support US natural gas prices A surge in demand for US natural gas from Mexico and Canada as well as bourgeoning shipments of LNG to Europe and Asia should give a boost to natural gas prices over the next year. 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fourth consecutive weekly drop in commercial crude stocks in the US provides further evidence that OPEC’s output cuts are starting to have an impact on inventory levels. We expect this trend to... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
