Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) Growth in global steel production slowed in August to 2.6%y/y, but the bigger picture is that it has expanded by a rapid 5.4% y/y in the first eight months of this year. However, we think that growth... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities join in “relief” rally The prices of most commodities rose this week as part of a more general rebound in financial markets. Although both the US and China announced another round of tariffs, there was some relief that the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand growth to soften Growth in global oil demand looks set to ease in 2019, driven by the expected economic slowdowns in China and the US, along with subdued consumption in Europe. High oil prices and mounting... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to rise in 2019 We think that stagnating supply growth, solid demand and lower global stocks will prompt some recovery in the price of copper in 2019. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil declined for the fifth consecutive week as net imports fell and refinery runs remained high for the time of the year. That said, refinery runs have started to ease back, which... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Convergence on the cards At first glance, there might appear to be some tension between our forecast that oil prices will fall in 2019, while industrial metals prices will end the year a little higher. In fact, it is more a... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold/silver price ratio to fall from 23-year high We think the prices of both gold and silver will rise in 2019 but silver looks set to outperform. It will benefit from its higher beta, a recovery in investor interest and a sharp slowdown in mine... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities treading water There was no clear trend in commodity prices this week. The price of oil rose on data showing a sharp fall in US crude stocks, while metals took some comfort from the announcement of new trade talks... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update We still expect the oil price to fall We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Are industrial metals oversold? We had always expected metals prices to decline this year on the back of a slowdown in China’s economy. However, even we have been surprised by the scale of the falls in prices, which we think have... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There was a hefty decline in inventories of crude oil last week, which was in part driven by higher refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline and distillates both rose, as demand faltered. The latest... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (August) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity import volumes slipped back in August, which is consistent with generally softer economic data. While there are signs that the government is moving to a somewhat more accommodative... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
