Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a price rally Commodity prices surged late in the week on the back of a slump in the US dollar, a fall in US real yields and some easing of COVID-related restrictions in China. However, we doubt that this heralds... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dance to the dollar’s tune Most commodity prices tracked the US dollar this week, falling sharply at the start of the week before staging a partial recovery in the latter half. Further dollar appreciation is likely given that... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ looks set to agree a cut to output quotas The US dollar completed a round trip this week, continuing its relentless rise against most currencies early in the week, but then started to fall back from Wednesday afternoon and is now a touch... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears trump supply fears, for now Most commodity prices plunged this week on the back of monetary tightening by many major central banks, including the Fed, and an appreciation of the US dollar. There is still considerable uncertainty... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed tightening presents a difficult backdrop for prices Most commodity prices have struggled to make gains since the US August CPI data were published on Tuesday. The unexpectedly strong reading prompted a rise in Treasury yields and US dollar appreciation... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy supply concerns take a back seat… for now Energy markets took centre stage this week as demand concerns outweighed supply concerns, dragging prices down. Even the decision by OPEC+ on Monday to cut oil output quotas for October by 100,000 bpd... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply concerns take a back seat, for now Growing fears about demand hit all commodity groups hard this week as China tightened restrictions in response to renewed virus outbreaks. Energy prices took a big leg down from their highs reached... 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas and coal prices to stay higher for longer We’ve raised our near-term natural gas and coal price forecasts across the board this week to account for the recent slump in Russian natural gas exports to Europe, the likelihood that those exports... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
