China Economics Weekly Lasting trade deal elusive, holidaymakers stay home The US and China may be on the brink of a mini deal that postpones the US tariffs that are due to come into force next Tuesday. But with the key structural issues no closer to being resolved, we... 11th October 2019 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse The restrictions on US capital flows into China reportedly being considered by the Trump administration would, at the margin, constrain China’s ability to fund overseas investment. But given China’s... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Excess infrastructure, bond quota confusion Beijing’s new airport is a timely microcosm of a nationwide trend in which local governments have built unusually extensive infrastructure, much of which is under-utilised. As a result, investment... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is inflation being misstated? Pork prices in early September are 70% higher than they were this time last year. How credible is it that overall consumer price inflation is just 2.8% y/y? 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing taking precedence over fiscal support The People’s Bank was quick to answer the State Council’s recent call for more stimulus, announcing a cut to banks’ required reserve ratio today. More policy easing will probably be needed in the... 6th September 2019 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade warriors getting smarter, Hong Kong into recession The original timetable had further talks scheduled between US and Chinese trade negotiators in September. The talks may well go ahead but that wouldn’t signal that either side was considering backing... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly US attack on RMB would flop, fiscal cliff avoided Some are speculating that the next salvo in the Trump administration’s efforts to hurt China’s economy could be foreign exchange intervention to force up the value of the renminbi. Such efforts would... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough A slump in exports by foreign firms is behind much of the recent slowdown in industrial production. While Chinese officials may appreciate the irony of foreign-owned factories being the worst hit by... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi The recent weakening of the renminbi has revived a debate over the economic impact of currency depreciation. There will be both winners and losers domestically. But given that China’s government... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US tariffs, PBOC easing, property controls President Trump’s latest threat to put further tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely to trigger the hoped-for concessions from China. With the direct hit to China’s economy still manageable, President... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China FDI, PBOC governor talks rates US-China trade tensions have so far had a limited impact on bilateral direct investment. Chinese investment in the US stagnated last year but it had stalled even before Trump started to get tough on... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property construction boom is fizzling out China’s economy has faced multiple headwinds over the past year, but it has also received a significant – and underappreciated – boost from accelerating property construction. Property developers... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly People’s Bank to follow the Fed The Fed has all-but-confirmed that it will cut rates at its upcoming meeting on 31st July. The PBOC is likely to follow suit, perhaps the next day, with a reduction to its reverse repo rates, the... 12th July 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus is back, property curbs still in place Last month’s directive to boost infrastructure spending appears to have had an immediate result, with data this week showing a surge in issuance of infrastructure financing bonds. But easing remains a... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
