China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Li shrugs off slowdown concerns Today’s weaker-than-expected data won’t do anything to settle investors’ nerves about the state of China’s economy. Hopes for an imminent policy response will also have been dented by Premier Li’s... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Online funds pushing interest rate liberalisation forward Interest rate liberalisation is happening faster than seemed likely even a few months ago as the sudden take-off of online money market funds has forced opponents of liberalisation to rethink their... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headline shrink in exports is misleading Yesterday's inflation data point to subdued price pressures. Meanwhile, despite the seasonal volatility in the latest trade data, foreign demand and exports remain healthy. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What if growth falls below 7.5%? China’s leaders have left the GDP growth target unchanged at “about 7.5%” but they are also now talking of focusing on a “range” for growth, determined in part by the health of employment. One... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The unchanged GDP growth target is the big news on the opening day of the National People’s Congress, though the government has given itself more wriggle room on growth than may immediately be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.13) Seasonal shifts in food prices are causing the usual volatility in inflation in the early months of 2014 including, it appears, a drop in the headline rate last month. Stepping back, price pressures... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi hit by a policy wave The People’s Bank (PBC) dropped a large rock into the usually tranquil waters of China’s currency policy in February. Its attempt to reduce speculative inflows caused the largest single-month decline... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can private investment shake-up China's state sector? Policymakers are moving to encourage private investors to play a larger role in China's state sector. However, unless the government is willing to relax control over state firms, investors will have... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band is not the goal A widening of the renminbi’s trading band is likely soon. But it would be wrong to think of such a shift as the main motivation for the currency’s recent moves. Indeed, a wider currency band would not... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong set for gradual recovery Hong Kong’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the last quarter of 2013, thanks mainly to a continued recovery in exports. Looking ahead, with the territory’s prospects largely dependent on... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More volatility ahead for the renminbi The recent abrupt fall in the renminbi is best seen as a salvo in a battle between policymakers who believe that China’s currency is close to its fair value and market participants who don’t... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal drag to add to growth concerns Next month’s budget is likely to be neutral for growth. But on a broader definition that accounts for off-budget activity, the fiscal stance this year will probably be a major drag on the economy. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation. This year though, prices have remained unusually subdued. Inflation is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers at least... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
