China Economics Update Planning to do it alone The 14 th Five-Year Plan should provide a revealing view of the key challenges that China’s leadership believes it faces. High among them is a more hostile global environment. In the economic sphere... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong sustains fiscal support Hong Kong has curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending but today’s budget signals that fiscal policy remains loose. There is room to do more, but the key determinant of the economic outlook is... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but PBOC more hawkish Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged on Saturday. But monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year. We expect the PBOC to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update This lockdown could boost the economy New restrictions on travel will disrupt Lunar New Year plans for many families in China but they should also reduce the disruption to manufacturing and construction that normally causes output to... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with monetary conditions already being tightened in practice and underlying inflation set to rebound, we think it is still likely... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update All of the service sector now back to growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data published today shows that the services sector, which had been lagging construction and industry, has returned to its pre-virus growth path, with all... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property sector facing new restrictions on credit The share of bank loans flowing to the property sector has doubled during the past 15 years. But new restrictions are likely to put an end to this upward trend. Coupled with broader limits on... 8th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with China’s leadership eyeing a gradual withdrawal of policy support, we think the PBOC will start to hike its policy rates next... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2021 China’s rebound from the COVID-19 shock has been swifter and stronger than most anticipated. We think its economy will continue to surprise to the upside for a while, paving the way for PBOC rate... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as PBOC focuses on financial risks Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today, after the PBOC moved to mitigate the impact of corporate bond defaults on interbank liquidity. With growth now back to its pre-virus path... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA Talks to establish the world’s biggest free-trade agreement, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), are finally expected to conclude at the weekend. While a deal would provide a boost... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Biden victory is not a win for China A Biden presidency won’t reverse the tide of US-China decoupling and could lead to economic strains on new fronts if climate change and human rights become greater US priorities. Our senior China... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Services still uneven but improving across the board The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data published today shows that the recovery within the service sector remains highly uneven. Encouragingly though, all types of services activity showed a... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed amid a broadening economic recovery, we think the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold with hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the economy now largely back to its pre-virus path and the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
