Canada Economics Update Rebound in small business optimism no game changer 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does Canada's new GDP methodology mean? Changes to Canada's quarterly national accounts methodology have resulted in a higher level of GDP. These important changes, however, have not significantly affected GDP growth and does not change our... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Pick-up in consumption growth likely to be temporary Although consumption growth has been fairly weak in the first half of this year, favourable income trends and a rebound in July's retail sales suggest that it may have picked up a little in the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing correction begins in earnest The decade-long run-up in home prices, which has seen prices rise in some cities by over 150%, is now going into reverse, with national home prices falling in August for the first time in more than... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing bubble bursting? The recent slump in home sales suggests that a housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower over the remainder of this year, then the typical lag relationship between... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank persists with tightening bias The Bank of Canada continues to insist that its policy rate will eventually need to rise from the current 1.0%, even as the global economic slowdown intensifies and the domestic housing boom shows... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profit margins under pressure The 4.9% q/q decline in second-quarter business operating profits casts further doubt on the outlook for investment and payroll employment. We certainly expect the decline in profit margins to... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy struggling to absorb economic slack We now estimate that second-quarter GDP grew by an estimated 1.6% annualised, slightly below the Bank of Canada's revised 1.8% prediction. More importantly, economic growth below 2% is not enough to... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Surging agricultural prices small net positive for economy While the drought threatening US farmers' crops has led to a surge in agricultural crop prices, many farmers in Western Canada are thankfully anticipating a return to normal production and in some... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Are household's turning cautious? Consumption growth has slowed in the first half of this year, a sign perhaps that households are becoming circumspect, in the face of a global economic downturn and the rising likelihood of a hard... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in Canadian dollar won't last We doubt that the recent rally in the Canadian dollar to above parity against its US counterpart will last. Admittedly, the safe haven status of the currency may continue to support it in the near... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment cycle may have peaked The surge in housing starts, driven entirely by hi-rise condominium construction despite already high inventory, is now glaring evidence of overbuilding. Anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, points to... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business optimism continues to deteriorate The further decline in the CFIB's small business barometer in July is an early indication that the overall pace of economic recovery may have slowed further. While GDP growth in the second quarter is... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market improvement unlikely to be sustained Labour market conditions have steadily improved since the economic recovery took hold in mid-2009. This improvement, however, is partly due to a sharp rebound in construction activity. Although... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Is the housing market enjoying a soft landing? Housing activity is cooling and if this trend continues, as we expect, the typical lag times between activity and prices suggest that house prices might begin to decline outright next year. Given the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada's new economic forecasts, presented in its July Monetary Policy Report, still look too optimistic, mainly because of its rosy domestic assumptions. Although the bank's lower near... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
