Canada Economics Update Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support The rollout of an effective vaccine in early 2021 would cause us to pull up our growth forecasts for next year, but the boost to GDP in 2022 could be much smaller if the improved near-term outlook... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions may not last The imminent easing of restrictions in Ontario is another reason to think that GDP will keep rising in the fourth quarter, but there is clearly a significant chance that restrictions will be reimposed... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank alters QE and beefs up forward guidance While the Bank of Canada today trimmed the pace of its QE purchases, we agree with its claim that the program should be as stimulative as before providing those purchases are focused on longer-term... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update US election effects to be outweighed by other factors A Democratic clean sweep in the US election is probably the scenario that would be most beneficial for Canada’s GDP, but the effects would still be far outweighed by other factors. 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s balance sheet to expand again soon The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet has been shrinking in recent weeks, as demand for its emergency repos loans continues to subside, and it will experience a bigger fall next spring, when the 12-month... 20th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada too downbeat on growth and inflation We think the Bank of Canada’s GDP forecasts are too weak given it assumes there will not be a second wave of the virus. Even if there is one, the Bank is likely underestimating the potential for... 29th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q2) The latest Business Outlook Survey somewhat surprisingly shows that Canadian firms have convinced themselves a recovery is just around the corner, even though the weak global backdrop and evidence of... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Home equity loans to have limited impact The full details of the new first-time buyer (FTB) equity loan scheme do not change our view that it will have little effect on the housing market. While the recent drop in mortgage rates will help to... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Core inflation to decline in 2020 Wage growth looks set to rise modestly, but the effect on unit labour costs is likely to be offset by a rebound in productivity growth. This suggests that core inflation will remain close to 2.0% in... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth not as strong as LFS suggests Annual wage growth according to the Labour Force Survey looks set to rise towards almost 4% in the coming months, but experience suggests that it is probably exaggerating the true strength of wages... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to drop back after second quarter rebound Although the Bank of Canada’s expectations for first-quarter GDP growth were more accurate than our own, we still think the Bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound in growth this quarter... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank to cut interest rates this year The Bank of Canada today argued that the recent economic slowdown has been largely due to temporary factors, but that growing global trade tensions mean that “the degree of accommodation being... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market’s strong performance will soon end Trade uncertainty and increased competition in the food delivery service sector help to explain the unusual strength of employment growth. Surveys now suggest that jobs growth will slow and, even with... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to rebound in Q2, before dropping back An unwinding of the temporary factors that weighed on activity in January and February means that GDP growth will rebound from 1% annualised in the first quarter to about 2.2% in the second. That... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
