Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2025)

The marked loosening of the labour market last month bolsters the case for the RBA to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting in November. Even so, the decision will probably come down to the wire, given the...

16th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Sep. 2025)

Although the RBA sounded less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates, we still expect it to deliver two more 25bp cuts in the months ahead.

14th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (October 25)

The RBNZ signalled that further reductions are on the cards when it slashed the overnight cash rate by 50bp today and we think it will eventually lower rates to 2.25%.

8th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending Indicator (August 25)

2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2025)

While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re...

30th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 2025)

Although the RBA won’t pay much heed to the pickup in headline inflation last month, the strength in core inflation will give it pause for thought. We expect the Bank to only cut rates twice more this...

24th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025)

Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp...

18th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q2 2025)

The sharp decline in output last quarter puts a bumper 50bp cut in play for the RBNZ at its October meeting. Risks to our forecast for a terminal rate of 2.5% are also tilted to the downside.

18th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending Indicator (Jul. 25)

With the Australian consumer springing back into action, the case for aggressive policy easing is becoming weaker.

4th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q2 2025)

Activity rebounded strongly in Q2, and for all the right reasons. The pickup in domestic demand raises the risks that the RBA won’t loosen policy as aggressively as we’re predicting.

3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (July 25)

27th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Aug. 2025)

Although the RBA will retain its cautious approach for the time being, we believe the Bank will ultimately cut rates further than most are predicting .

26th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (Aug. 2025)

When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it clearly signalled that there is more easing in the pipeline. Accordingly, we’re more confident than ever in our below-consensus terminal rate forecast of...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (July 2025)

The tick down in the unemployment rate in July is likely to keep the RBA on sidelines at its next meeting in September, but we still think the Bank will ultimately loosen policy a bit further than...

14th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2025)

13th August 2025 · 2 mins read