Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the surge in employment a sign of things to come? We doubt that the surge in Australian employment in March will mark the beginning of a sustained rebound in employment growth. Indeed, a deeper dive into the latest employment trends in different... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has the weakening in retail spending got further to run? The outright fall in retail sales values in February raises fresh concerns about the health of the retail sector. Admittedly, some of the recent weakness is due to temporary factors. But there are... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Banks and their net interest margins Although Australian banks will probably soon be hit by more stringent mortgage lending rules, they can take some comfort from an interest rate environment that will probably be fairly favourable over... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The anatomy of the record trade surplus The roots of the swing in Australia’s international trade balance from a record deficit at the end of 2015 to a record surplus in December 2016 lie firmly in the huge rise in commodity prices rather... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much will housing help? After contributing 0.5 percentage points to the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia in each of the past two years, it looks as though dwellings investment will add almost nothing to growth this... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes and risks for 2017 The range of possible economic outcomes for next year are wider than usual and it is possible that 2017 proves to be a sweet spot for both Australia and New Zealand. But it seems more likely that a... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
