Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut interest rates next year The Reserve Bank of Australia revised up its inflation forecasts sharply when it lifted the cash rate by 50bp today and we expect it to hike rates more aggressively over coming months than most... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What if homebuilding doesn’t slump? Our view that GDP growth will slow below potential next year assumes one of the sharpest falls in dwellings investment in Australia’s modern history. However, this Update explains why dwellings... 25th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What to expect from the monetary policy review We doubt that the upcoming review of Australia’s monetary policy framework will result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house prices... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ hiking cycle will end by year-end The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 50bp in July but emerging worries about the health of the economy are consistent with our view that rates will peak around 3.5% rather than the 4%... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike to around 3.5% but will cut in late-2023 The RBA sounded a little more cautious about the outlook for the economy when it hiked rates by 50bp today, but we suspect that further upside surprises to inflation will encourage it to eventually... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Minimum wage rise will keep RBA hiking aggressively The 5.2% increase in the minimum wage announced by the Fair Work Commission will directly lift the Wage Price Index by around 0.7%-pt. But the increase will also contribute to upward pressure on wage... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will prompt RBA rate cuts in 2023 With the RBA set to hike the cash rate to 3% by early-2023, we now expect house prices to fall by 15% from their April peak. While the economy has considerable momentum from reopening in the near-term... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Rates to rise to 3% by early-2023 The 50bp hike in the cash rate today is consistent with our view that interest rates will peak at higher levels than most anticipate and we’re expecting additional 50bp hikes in July and August. 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - The case for a windfall tax on mining profits The rapid improvement in the public finances means that the government can provide financial support to households struggling with high energy bills without raising taxes. But if it did decide that... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand house prices to fall by 20% House prices in New Zealand are tumbling and all signs point to a further deterioration in the months ahead. On that basis, we are revising up our forecast for the peak to trough decline in prices... 30th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ confirms hiking cycle to be followed by cuts The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it hiked rates by 50bp today, and we now think rates will rise to 3.5% by the end of this year. But the Bank endorsed our long-held non-consensus view that rate cuts will... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Housing downturn could force earlier rate cuts House prices are starting to fall across Australia earlier than we had anticipated. While we still expect the RBA to hike rates until early-2023, the experience from previous housing downturns points... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor government mean for Australia? A Labor government will probably keep fiscal policy looser than the previous Coalition government, putting more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates. But while a Labor government will make... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Budget boost will exacerbate inflationary pressures While the government’s Budget was focused on equipping households to withstand surging living costs, by adding to demand we think it will cause inflation to be higher over the next year. That’s all... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Wage growth will rise further before it falls The 6% rise in the minimum wage will help lift wage growth further this year. But a loosening labour market and smaller minimum wage hikes in the years ahead will facilitate a slow down in wage growth... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Falling real incomes won’t derail consumption for now The sharpest fall in real incomes since the 1990/91 recession won’t prevent a strong rebound in consumption this year and next. But with the tailwind from reopening the economy set to fade... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
