Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may only hike in 2023 While the RBA pressed ahead with tapering its asset purchases today, the financial markets are too optimistic in pricing in rate hikes as soon as next year. 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ may delay hiking until May The recent reimposition of the strictest level of lockdown in New Zealand was enough to prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates in August. And our assumption that restrictions will now remain in place... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ ready to lift rates when restrictions ease The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it left rates on hold today, but the decision demonstrates that the Bank is taking a cautious approach in light of the current lockdown. Assuming restrictions can be... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Three key points about New Zealand’s labour market While the unemployment rate is now back at its pre-virus low, a range of indicators suggest that there is still some slack in the labour market. We think the unemployment rate may eventually fall to 3... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA to hike rates in early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise by not delaying the tapering of its bond purchases. And by predicting that it will hit its full employment mandate and make further progress... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- How inflationary is the border closure? We believe that the slump in net migration is holding back supply more than demand. Unless the government allows net migration to overshoot its pre-virus level for a prolonged period once the border... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Vaccine rollout has yet to alter health situation With Sydney tightening its lockdown and the one in Victoria set to be extended, we now expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% q/q in Q3. The vaccine rollout isn’t advanced enough yet to ease the medical... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand- End of asset purchases signals rates will rise soon The RBNZ today sent a hawkish signal by announcing the end of its bond purchases. While we currently expect the Bank to start hiking rates in May next year, the risk is that it will happen earlier. 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought... 12th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates in early-2023 By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023. 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Is the strength in employment an accounting illusion? The labour force survey overstates the strength of the recovery in employment because it doesn’t capture the plunge in the number of non-resident workers. However, their impact on the labour market... 27th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lasting decline in saving rate would be an upside risk The surge in consumption in Q1 resulted in the savings rate falling to a 15-year low. While we expect households to respond to falling house prices with higher savings, the rebound in GDP could be... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices to fall in 2022 We expect the RBNZ to impose new lending restrictions in the months ahead which, in addition to rising interest rates, should result in house prices declining next year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
