Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy unlikely to live up to RBA’s expectations The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a bit more confident in its economic outlook when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th month today. But we still think that GDP... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keeps the faith in optimistic forecasts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the faith in its relatively optimistic forecasts for the economy while leaving interest rates at 1.75% for the 22 nd month today, but you could argue that the... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Boost to GDP from private investment unlikely to last The bulk of the recent leap in GDP growth has been driven by the behaviour of businesses, but firms probably won’t be able to support growth for long. An easing in private investment growth is one... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA glosses over weaker economic news The upbeat tone of the comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia after it left interest rates at the record low of 1.5% for the 25th month today is starting to grate more obviously with the incoming... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy can cope with surge in political uncertainty As politicians don’t influence the economy by as much as they’d like to believe, the growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister’s position is unlikely to significantly dent activity. That said... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Drought won’t dent the economy much The recent drought is hurting many farmers, their communities and the agricultural sector. But it is unlikely to put a big dent in the output of the whole economy or significantly raise CPI inflation. 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The tide may turn in favour of the dollar next year Even though both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened by more than 10% this year and have pretty much hit our end-year forecasts, the risks still lie on the downside. The tide may turn... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Putting the housing downturn into context The fall in house prices seen so far is small by the standards of the average Australian downturn. But a further tightening in credit criteria may contribute to it morphing into the deepest and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA paints a near-perfect picture of the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new projections that the economy will be in an almost perfect state in 2020 suggest that the Bank is edging ever so slowly towards raising interest rates. Our view that... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ says rate hikes are a more distant prospect While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand strongly suggested that the first interest rate hike is further away than it... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA sounds upbeat, but still a long way from hiking The Reserve Bank of Australia appeared a bit more upbeat on the outlook for the domestic economy while leaving interest rates at 1.5% for the 24 th month today, but it continued to hint that interest... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update China’s tariffs may help LNG exports in the long-term Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers are unlikely to benefit much from China’s proposal to impose a 25% tariff on LNG imports from the US simply because China doesn’t buy that much LNG... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy forewarning of 2% GDP growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy suggests that the economy lost further momentum in June and that GDP may now be growing by just 2.0% a year. Most worrying are the signs that the slump in business... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Petrol prices eat into tax and minimum wage windfall A large chunk of the boost to consumption from the income tax cuts and the rise in the minimum wage, both of which came into effect on 1st July, is being offset by the leap in petrol prices. Moreover... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s global and housing concerns grow Growing concerns about the global trade dispute and the deepening domestic housing downturn mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at 1.5%, as it did at today’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
