Commodities Update Six key questions about the sell-off in precious metals We recently hosted a Drop-In on the sell-off in gold and other precious metals. This Update answers six key questions on topics such as the role of leverage in driving prices, the macroeconomic and... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The higher gold goes, the harder it could fall It’s notoriously hard to objectively value gold, and it’s plausible that the rapid ascent in gold prices could reflect a paradigm shift in demand. In fact, if gold prices were to follow the trajectory... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How big is the threat to global markets from JGBs? Although further weakness in JGBs might have implications for financial markets outside Japan, we doubt the global fallout would be large for four reasons. 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Indian equities: another year of underperformance ahead India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key themes for financial markets in 2026 We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound... 16th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three reasons to be positive on Japan’s markets Although they’ve struggled lately, we think the yen and Japanese equities will fare well next year, and that JGBs will outperform many other developed-market bonds in common-currency terms too. 4th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Blowing the full-time whistle on the gold rally The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages. So unlike some analysts, we are revising our forecasts lower and now expect prices to fall to $3,500 per ounce... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The future still looks bright for US diversified banks We think the outlook for US diversified banks is sunny, given the prospects for bonds and the economy. 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The great pension switch into equities: for richer or poorer? The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s next for non-US equities? Though future changes to US tariffs could still cause some volatility in equity markets, we think other factors will mean equities outside the US continue to make decent gains for the rest of this... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rally in EM financial markets slowing: what’s next? After a stellar performance in the first half of 2025, the emerging market (EM) asset rally has slowed over the past few weeks following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements. While we... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
