Asia Economics Weekly Australia’s cash rate still likely to rise later this year The Reserve Bank (RBA) meets on Tuesday and is almost certain to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.5%, given that Q2 consumer price data were softer than expected. Nonetheless, the mining boom will... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How severe is Korea’s slowdown likely to be? GDP growth in Korea probably slowed in Q2 and is likely to stay on a weaker track in coming quarters. The economic upswing should not come under serious threat, but exports and manufacturing growth... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What lies ahead for industrial production in Asia? Industrial output has soared across Emerging Asia since the first half of 2009, but the rapid expansion will not be sustained. The inventory-rebuilding cycle has now largely worked its way through and... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand set to hike policy rates The Bank of Thailand (BoT) meets this week and we, like the market, expect that they will move the policy rate up by 25bp to 1.5%. The social unrest in April-May appears to have inflicted little long... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The first Bank of Korea rate hike is close The Bank of Korea (BoK) meets this week and the decision whether to hike or not looks to be finely-balanced. We expect the policy rate to be unchanged at 2.0%, although the chance of a July move is... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam’s upswing is accelerating again Vietnam data published over the next few days will almost certainly confirm that the economy has picked up speed and is now expanding close to the government’s target pace of 6.5% y/y. It is likely... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand set for a long hard slog New Zealand’s GDP looks to have expanded in Q1, albeit at a slower q/q pace than at the end of 2009. The recovery should not come under serious threat in coming quarters but is likely to be sluggish... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Malaysia deliver on structural reform? Malaysia’s latest plan to boost its competitiveness, announced last week, looks realistic and achievable. Effective implementation of the new reforms will be key. But the target of lifting GDP growth... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike soon, but not this month Korea’s central bank meets on Thursday and is likely to keep its policy rate on hold. The Bank of Korea (BoK) will probably wait for market volatility, stemming from an escalation in tensions with... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation is India's biggest threat It will probably be India’s turn on Monday to report another spectacularly strong Q1 GDP gain – we think that the economy expanded by 9.5% y/y. There is little doubt that the upswing will continue and... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam outlook continues to improve The central bank in Vietnam will set interest rates for June over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate unchanged at 8.00%, rather than move rates up. The easing of credit conditions... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand’s budget to focus on tax reform A hike in the GST, and reforms designed to lift investment, will be the centrepiece of this week’s New Zealand budget. The changes overall are likely to be fiscally neutral in 2010-11 to help protect... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia set to tighten again Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) will probably raise policy interest rates again this week, provided the debt crisis in the euro-zone periphery and the disorder in the markets does not escalate further... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia to tighten again Australia’s Reserve Bank (RBA) meets on Tuesday and, although it is a close call, will probably lift the cash rate again by 25bp to 4.50%. This is now the markets’ view too. The economy is moving from... 3rd May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam to wait and see The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) should set interest rates for May over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate on hold at 8.00%. Monetary policy has been effectively tightened in... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand will probably reach a compromise soon The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is virtually certain to leave the repo rate unchanged at 1.25% at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Economic conditions probably warrant a move up in the policy rate... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
