Asia Economics Update Will Indonesia buck the trend and raise rates? The recent equities and government bonds sell-off in Indonesia has prompted comparisons with an episode in August 2005, when concerns over the fiscal impact of rising oil prices triggered a similar... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No sign of recession or financial crisis in Japan’s Tankan The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions in manufacturing was slightly weaker than the median forecasts, but the risks were always on the downside and the actual results are still... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The "wrong" type of inflation in Japan? Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances... 28th March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian civil service pay raise won’t solve corruption, inflation India’s 6th Pay Commission recommendation for generous central government worker pay hikes may have little, if any, impact on constraining corruption in the civil service but it will certainly stoke... 25th March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tankan to remain well above recession territory The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for March, due next Tuesday (1st April), will almost certainly show that business conditions have deteriorated. However, the markets are already prepared... 25th March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Does it matter who governs the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected. The real interest lies in the dispute over the replacement for Governor Fukui, who retires later this month. We think that the... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: slowdown + elections = fiscal populism At 8.4% y/y, India’s Q4 GDP figure confirmed that it is not immune to the global slowdown. The deceleration is not entirely unwelcome as it puts growth on a more sustainable path. Nevertheless, in a... 29th February 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong finish to 2007 sets Japan up nicely for 2008 The surge in GDP at the end of 2007 supports our non-consensus view that, rather than heading for recession, Japan will be the only major economy to grow at least as quickly this year as last. It... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: weathering the storm The latest data suggest that the Indian economy is holding up well despite the slowdown in the West. New statistics on output and prices suggest that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is under reduced... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China heading for a recession? Some influential commentators are now suggesting that China has as high a chance of sinking into recession over the next couple of years as the US (see Kenneth Rogoff in today’s FT for an example)... 5th February 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Recovery in construction to help rescue Japanese GDP The latest housing starts data should (but perhaps won’t) quieten talk that Japan is heading into recession. Indeed, we are increasingly confident that a sustained recovery in the construction sector... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Can Chinese fiscal policy do more to stimulate demand? Fears over the demise of the US consumer have left many wondering where the next source of global demand will come from. We are sceptical that increased Chinese demand will do much to offset the... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What's up with Japanese consumers? The surprise jump in household spending in December suggests that it is too soon to write-off the Japanese consumer. The labour market is also holding up rather better than many had expected and... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
