Asia Economics Update Slow start to Q3 but Thailand's outlook is still upbeat Bank of Thailand (BoT) monthly indicators for July are consistent with industrial activity and export growth in the second half of the year being weaker than in the first. But this should be no... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India is well-placed to shrug off global concerns Q2 GDP data published today were strong relative to a year ago but suggest that momentum slowed sharply in q/q annualised terms. We had expected the recent weakness but do not think that it will last... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Investment grade looks close for Indonesia The consensus expects that Indonesia will achieve investment grade over the next one-to-three years but we believe that an upgrade by one of the three major ratings agencies will probably happen over... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam set for rapid, but high risk, growth August data published over the last week show that the upswing in Vietnam remains strong, inflation has stayed on a slower track, while higher capital inflows are easing the strain on the balance of... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth in the Philippines to bring rate hikes soon Q2 GDP in the Philippines came in stronger than even our above-consensus forecast. Domestic demand will probably stay strong and should offset the fading support from foreign conditions and inventory... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More Bank of Thailand tightening on the way The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.75% today, as expected. The economy has shrugged off the political crisis and domestic demand should improve even as exports slow. The... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's economy shrugs off the political crisis Thailand’s GDP growth came in stronger than our above-consensus forecast in Q2. Export growth will slow from now on but a slump is unlikely while domestic demand is set to stay strong. It is now... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia, not the politics, will drive Australia's outlook The hung parliament outcome of Australia’s weekend election will inevitably hit local markets for a time but the long-run impact should be small. The main political parties have similar fiscal... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan to ask for more IMF help Pakistan was already struggling to keep the IMF on-side and the floods have changed the near term economic outlook so much that it makes sense to re-write the current adjustment programme. GDP growth... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan central bank continues to focus on growth In a surprise move, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut its reverse repo rate earlier today. Inflation has continued to slow while market interest rates have not come down as much as was... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's upswing still strong but not for much longer Q2 GDP data, released today, confirm that Taiwan’s economy will be one of the world’s best performers in 2010. However, weaker external demand will increasingly weigh on growth from now on. Policy... 19th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on course for a soft-landing Data released today showed that Malaysia’s economy expanded at a slower pace in Q2 than in Q1. The upswing will continue to lose momentum in coming quarters but the risk that the expansion stalls is... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's Reserve Bank tightening still has far to go Recent India data show that inflation pressures have eased while the gain in industrial production has slowed sharply. External risks have climbed too. Nevertheless, non-food inflation is unlikely to... 16th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea's pause to be short-lived The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 2.25% today but maintained its tightening bias. The broad-based domestic economic recovery should continue despite external risks, while inflation is... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank has little reason to pause While today’s labour market data showed that Korea’s unemployment rate rose in July, the details of the report are encouraging. In addition, we believe that the policy rate is not the appropriate tool... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia's rapid economic growth will be sustained Indonesia’s GDP growth accelerated to 6.2% y/y in Q2. We expect continued strong growth in coming quarters, led by domestic private sector demand. We maintain our forecast that monetary tightening... 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
