Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants... 25th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a... 6th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June... 9th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject... 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still... 25th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift, Saudi gigaprojects, Morocco GDP Just over a month ago Egypt’s authorities underwent their dramatic shift to economic orthodoxy and the signs so far are more positive than in previous instances. The pound is more flexible, inflation... 11th April 2024 · 7 mins read