Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom... 3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Taking stock of the ‘12-Day War' The Israel-Iran conflict escalated dramatically and, even more quickly, subsided over the past week with the agreement of a ceasefire that has, so far, held. The focus now is on whether Iran pursues... 26th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in... 19th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Israel-Iran fears, Red Sea investment, Saudi Q1 GDP Worries of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran and/or its proxies drove a jump in oil prices on Wednesday, but the fallout for the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies should be limited... 12th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil... 5th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: GCC-ASEAN-China summit, Saudi’s shrinking trade surplus The GCC-ASEAN-China summit this week contained a lot of platitudes about boosting trade and investment between China and the Gulf. But it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the... 22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations... 15th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth... 8th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't... 1st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s new budget, Saudi fiscal tightening & real estate Egypt’s draft FY2025/26 Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity which should put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards path. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s government... 24th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices? President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external... 10th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: MENA and the Trump trade war, Saudi balance of payments President Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday evening mean that much of the Middle East and North Africa is subject to a 10% tariff, although Jordan is more vulnerable given its greater... 3rd April 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s budget laid out, Saudi spending cuts Egypt’s FY2025/26 Budget outlined that the overall budget deficit will remain large, but that’s due to high interest payments. The government is committed to continuing to run a large primary surplus... 27th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
