Commodities Outlook The energy crisis is over, but prices to stay elevated We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices... 31st March 2023 · 41 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Commodities Outlook Prices to find a floor While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months... 28th July 2022 · 40 mins read
Commodities Overview Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Metals Outlook Prices to succumb to weaker demand before long Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in... 27th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals can’t escape China slowdown Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term... 3rd November 2021 · 20 mins read
Metals Outlook At the start of a downswing in prices Although the prices of industrial metals have picked up again recently, we still expect them to be falling over the next year or so. Underpinning this view are our forecasts for economic growth to... 4th August 2021 · 19 mins read
Metals Outlook Industrial metals prices to fall from current highs Although we anticipate a strong global economic recovery in 2021, our forecast of a slowdown in China’s economy means that we still expect industrial metals prices to end the year lower. At the same... 28th April 2021 · 19 mins read
Metals Outlook 2021 to be a year of two halves Industrial metals prices had a stellar 2020, with prices ending the year higher than where they started. But just as China’s strong economic recovery lifted metals prices in 2020, so will China’s... 28th January 2021 · 19 mins read
Metals Outlook China-led rally is running out of road Industrial metals prices have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy. But given how far prices have risen already, and that we think demand outside of... 26th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Metals Outlook Post-GFC-style revival to continue, for now … Despite base metals prices already nearing pre-virus levels, we think that the rally has further to run. The key factor underpinning our positive outlook is the planned policy stimulus in China, much... 31st July 2020 · 19 mins read
Metals Outlook The long road to recovery Measures designed to contain the spread of coronavirus have dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. Assuming that these measures are lifted at a global level in the second half of the year, we expect a... 27th April 2020 · 17 mins read
Metals Outlook Recovery still base case, but coronavirus big risk A sharp decline in China’s economic growth in Q1 as a result of the coronavirus outbreak now seems certain. This will be a significant negative for metals demand, as China is the world’s single... 5th February 2020 · 18 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals to muddle through in 2020 We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed... 1st November 2019 · 17 mins read
Metals Outlook Base metals to see better days in 2020 Recent rallies in metals prices, particularly in precious metals and iron ore, are likely to falter sooner rather than later. Indeed, we expect almost all metals prices to drop in the remainder of... 29th July 2019 · 18 mins read
