Latin America Economic Outlook High inflation will limit room for interest rate cuts GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Inflation and interest rates peaking Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth... 19th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Commodities boost unwinding High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and bumpy path to recovery Severe COVID-19 outbreaks across Latin America will put a brake on the region’s economic recovery in Q2. While we’re more optimistic than most that the rollout of vaccines will boost output later this... 22nd April 2021 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Vaccines won’t heal all scars While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after... 26th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Lagging behind The failure to contain the coronavirus and the small size of fiscal support in some countries mean that Latin America will have the weakest recovery of any region globally. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia... 23rd July 2020 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to come out worst The downturn in Latin America this year will the deepest since reliable records began. The slow policy responses in Brazil and Mexico, as well as struggles to bring their coronavirus outbreaks under... 24th April 2020 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A fitful recovery Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the... 21st January 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional recovery to be slow-going After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many... 12th July 2019 · 27 mins read
