Beyond the core: Navigating property's structural revolution
Beyond the core: Navigating property's structural revolution
New analysis highlights the shifts in commercial real estate markets.
Structural changes in our economies have been the primary drivers of sector performance over the last 25 years. Online shopping has grown from a niche business at the turn of the century to accounting for a third of retail sales in some markets, while the extent of remote work was turbocharged by the pandemic. These factors have fundamentally altered the risks and opportunities in the traditional sectors.
Now, with prospective returns looking less appealing, investors are increasingly turning to a range of alternative sectors with a view to generating higher risk-adjusted returns, improving diversification and keying into the trends that will shape our economies over the next 25 years. Demographic megatrends such as ageing populations and immigration flows, AI's growing importance in all areas of life, and the higher interest rate environment provide structural support for sectors such as senior living, data centres, self-storage, and co-living. When combined, these sectors are no longer fringe and are instead becoming the pillars of a resilient portfolio.
This page lays out how those themes will underpin winning and losing sectors over the coming years, incorporating a new body of work from Q2 2026 as well as the most important pieces from earlier analysis prompted by the pandemic.
What will the office market look like by 2030?
The office sector faces dual headwinds from remote work and the AI transition, both of which will keep demand in the doldrums over the coming years. Conversions from office to other use are going strong, but older, poorly located stock will continue to suffer.
Will remote work drive residential demand?
The pandemic structurally increased the amount of their incomes that households are willing to spend on their homes. It also brought forward moves to the suburbs and to cheaper locations, but the pace of these moves has reverted to pre-pandemic rates.
The impact of changing spending habits on retail, hospitality and warehousing
Online spending re-based at a higher level during the pandemic but will continue to account for a larger share of retail sales into the 2030s, supporting out-of-town performance.
Meanwhile, rising leisure spend will support occupancy in retail and mixed-use assets, with luxury hotels also faring well. But business travel will remain a drag due to changed working patterns.
Warehousing's pandemic-era boom is over and we expect absorption closer to "normal" levels in the next 5-10 years, with slower rental growth in turn.
Can cities recover?
Cities will recover, but the largest will underperform over the coming years.
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