Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec. 2022) The Bank of Japan today tweaked its Yield Curve Control (YCC) settings by widening the tolerance band around its yield target but we don’t expect it to hike its short-term policy rate anytime soon. 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update More flexible guidelines not enough for BoJ tightening A mooted adjustment to the joint statement between the Bank of Japan and the government has been widely interpreted as a step towards the withdrawal of ultra-loose policy. However, the policy... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Food import price aftershocks to affect 2023 We expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target through the middle of next year despite government utility price caps and falling non-food inflation over that period. One reason is... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Global downturn will drag Japan into recession We still expect consumer spending to rise rapidly over the coming year. But with many overseas trading partners entering recession, exports will decline. That will prompt firms to pull in their horns... 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in regular pay more than a reopening distortion A strong rebound in working hours in the accommodation and food services sector is one reason why regular pay is growing at the fastest pace in a generation. However, there’s been a broad-based upward... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control not on its way out The Bank of Japan’s renewed difficulties in defending its 10-year yield target have prompted fresh speculation that it may abandon Yield Curve Control. However, neither concerns about the functioning... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Window for policy tightening is closing rapidly The Bank of Japan revised up its medium-term inflation forecasts while keeping policy unchanged today, but we still think that it won’t snuff out the budding virtuous cycle between incomes and wages. 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weak yen will lift underlying inflation above 2% With the yen approaching 150 against the dollar, we now expect underlying inflation to climb to 2.5% by early-2023 instead of our previous forecast of 2.0%. But as this will happen when the global... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japanese firms not benefitting from rising interest rates Japanese firms’ holdings of interest-bearing assets have risen relative to their interest-bearing liabilities and some are suggesting that they benefit from rising interest rates as a result. But with... 10th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will maintain negative rates and YCC settings The Bank of Japan kept policy loose and retained its easing bias today and we think it won’t tighten policy even as underlying inflation reaches its 2% target. 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Quantitative tightening not weighing on loan demand The Bank of Japan’s assets are falling for the first time since it embraced large-scale easing a decade ago, as banks are repaying emergency funds they borrowed during the pandemic. However, this is... 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Terms of trade shocks will hold back recovery Japan is facing its largest terms of trade shock since the second oil crisis in the early-1980s. While we don’t expect Japan to follow other advanced economies into recession, we’re slashing our 2023... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Inflation will rise above 3% by year-end Soaring electricity and gas prices will help lift inflation above 3% by year-end. But with that boost unlikely to be sustained, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to tighten monetary policy. Asia Drop... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
