Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again before long The Bank of Japan revised down its growth forecasts and sounded more dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today. However, we believe that the Bank has become far too downbeat about the... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s rent inflation about to take off? Our base case is that faster growth in household incomes will result in the recent pick-up in rent inflation broadening from major cities to the rest of the country. However, there’s a risk that... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade war not weighing on business confidence The available business surveys show that confidence hasn’t weakened after Liberation Day. However, with price pressures coming off the boil, the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten policy only... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rebound in 10-year JGB yield has much further to run The trade war has merely delayed rather than scuppered further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the 10-year JGB yield will rise to 1.75% by year... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Escalating trade war will keep BoJ on sidelines for now Even if Japan’s attempts to negotiate a trade deal with Trump succeed quickly, concerns about the impact of escalating tensions between the US and other trading partners will force the Bank of Japan... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike in May as inflation overshoots While US tariffs are a headwind, the continued acceleration in consumer prices will only heighten concerns among Bank of Japan’s Board members about inflation overshooting its 2% target. As the Bank... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.5% by 2027 With the Bank of Japan sounding a bit more worried about downside risks to activity from US tariffs than about upside risks to inflation, we’re pushing back our forecast for the next rate hike from... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the slowdown in core inflation There are good reasons for the BoJ to strip out only fresh food rather than all food from its preferred measure of core inflation. To be sure, the fact that inflation excluding all food and energy has... 14th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: The Shunto, the Bank of Japan and the inflation and policy outlook 1741939200 Will the Bank of Japan be doing a victory lap this year in its quest to get inflation sustainably to 2%?
