US Economics Update Should we fear a surge in US student loan default rates? Student loan default rates are set to soar and the government will soon begin collections against defaulted loans for the first time since the pandemic. This is unlikely to be a big drag on households... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Fiscal risks much bigger than tariff risks While the possibility of more US tariffs on UK exports will dominate next week, the bigger risk over the next six months or so comes from the unfinished fiscal business after the Chancellor’s fiscal... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan will lift rates above 1% next year The Bank of Japan signaled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% this week and we expect rates to climb further than most expect over the coming year. Meanwhile, the budget deficit... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Gentle fall in UK household saving rate to support spending Our analysis suggests that most of the recent rise in the household saving rate can be attributed to cyclical rather than structural factors, which means the saving rate will slowly fall as interest... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining... 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt... 25th September 2024 · 14 mins read
