US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to bottom out, but activity will remain soft Surprisingly resilient demand, high inflation, and limited supply mean a severe drop in house prices will be avoided. With the peak in mortgage rates now behind us and the labour market in good shape... 21st November 2023 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe that central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are done... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch. (Nov.) The fall in new listings in October may ease some concerns about forced home sales but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio declining again, it is still likely that the pace of house price declines... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 23) The past prices balance remained deeply negative in October contradicting the 1% m/m increases in house prices recorded by both Halifax and Nationwide. But a recovery in buyer enquiries suggests the... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Further sharp drop in house prices unlikely The rise in house prices in October was a challenge to our long-held view that high borrowing costs will cause them to drop further. The resilience of prices in part reflects longer mortgage terms... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Oct. 23) The increase in the Halifax house price index in October confirmed that house prices are rising, suggesting that the high cost of borrowing alone is not sufficient to trigger the leg down we predicted... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Risk of forced home sales is rising There are increasing signs that the most leveraged borrowers are struggling to refinance their mortgages with traditional lenders. The small but meaningful number of insured mortgage holders who took... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2023) The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions... 23rd October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower house prices will help pull down CPI inflation The renewed weakness in the housing market and likelihood that mortgage interest cost inflation will soon ease are reasons to expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months. Next week, the... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
