Global Markets Update Revising down our forecast for Swiss equities We no longer expect the MSCI Switzerland Index to outperform the MSCI USA Index over the next couple of years and have lowered our end-2021 and end-2022 forecasts accordingly. 20th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the market implications of an SDR allocation We think the IMF’s anticipated $650bn Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation is unlikely to have a major market impact, although it might provide countries with falling exchange rates and low levels... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. 9th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of central banks going “green” In recent years, and particularly since the start of the pandemic, the pressure on central banks to address climate change has increased. This Update considers the potential implications for financial... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for EM assets and currencies We have recently revised up our end-21 and end-22 projections for the US ten-year Treasury yield, which has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies. 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our forecast for the US dollar We now expect that the US dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the US economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We now forecast further increases in DM bond yields In light of our revised forecasts for long-term US Treasury yields, we have raised our forecasts for the yields of 10-year government bonds in most other developed markets. But in most cases we doubt... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We now think the 10-year Treasury yield will rise further The sharp rise of US yields in response to this year’s shift in US fiscal policy and rapid progress on vaccinations – and the Fed’s apparent willingness to accept higher long-term interest rates –... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazil’s stock market may continue to underperform We had expected Brazil’s stock market to be among the best performers in the world this year, but with the virus still running rampant and populist policymaking on the rise, we now think its... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond yields and the outlook for DM equities Despite the recent turmoil in bond markets, we continue to expect developed market (DM) equities to gain ground in the rest of this year as real yields remain quite low and economic growth stays... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of higher FX-hedged Treasury yields We think that high FX-hedged yields on 10-year US Treasuries will encourage more purchases from non-US investors and may help to limit the rise in US government bond yields even as the economy... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s markets may diverge from those elsewhere Just as we expect China’s economy to slow later this year even as growth picks up rapidly elsewhere, we think China’s financial markets could stand out from those in the rest of the world in the... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the future is bright for Japanese equities We think that the recent outperformance of the MSCI Japan Index relative to the MSCI USA Index will continue as the world slowly gets back to normal. 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Rising bond yields and the outlook for the US dollar The rise of government bond yields in the US and other developed markets (DMs) this year has made a significant impact on currency markets and, if it continues, would challenge our forecast for a... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the risks to EMs from higher US real yields We don’t expect the recent rise in US bond yields to turn into a rerun of the 2013 Taper Tantrum. But even if US real yields continued to grind higher, we think that EM assets and currencies would be... 4th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie Given our latest forecast for oil prices, we now expect the Canadian dollar to rise further in 2021 than we previously thought, but to drop back a bit in 2022. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read