Global Markets Outlook Bonds & stocks may rally as "higher for longer" unravels We think the “higher-for-longer” narrative that has taken hold in the market won’t last through 2024. We suspect that central banks will generally cut faster than investors seem to expect and that, as... 28th September 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Amid banking turmoil, outlook for “risky” assets seems bleak The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add... 31st March 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Looming global recession another threat to risky assets We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields... 28th October 2022 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the latest asset price rallies will prove short-lived We doubt the recent rallies in global bond and equity markets will be sustained over the remainder of the year. While we no longer think the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed its June peak, we... 3rd August 2022 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Further pain may still be in store for global markets We think the rises in global government bond yields – and falls in equity prices – have not run their course yet. Yields have typically peaked only shortly before the ends of central bank tightening... 29th April 2022 · 29 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect higher bond yields and limited gains in equities Although government bond yields have already risen sharply this year, we think that they will continue to increase as central banks press ahead with monetary tightening this year and next. Higher... 28th January 2022 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect long-term yields to rise further While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some... 27th October 2021 · 29 mins read
Global Markets We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast... 30th July 2021 · 29 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect higher yields to dampen the rally in “risky” assets We continue to forecast that a strong recovery in the global economy and ongoing policy support will drive further increases in developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities over the next... 30th April 2021 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Despite bubble talk, we expect risky assets to rise more We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise... 29th January 2021 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We forecast stronger equities and a weaker dollar We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our... 13th November 2020 · 31 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the rally in risky assets will continue While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is... 7th August 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the recovery in risky assets has further to go We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the... 30th April 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
