Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry rebounds from Omicron, but risks ahead The latest manufacturing PMIs add further evidence that the hit to industrial activity from Omicron was limited and should be short-lived. Although supply chain issues and price pressures no longer... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economy to weather conflict, but risks around supply The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has increased the risks posed to the global economy, but we still expect the broader effects to be relatively contained given limited trade and financial... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show activity rebounding from Omicron hit February’s Flash PMIs support our earlier assertion that activity in developed economies would recover quickly from disruption related to Omicron. There is also tentative evidence that supply... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor The Omicron hit to activity has been small compared to past waves and should prove short-lived now that cases are falling in all regions. In fact, high-frequency data suggest that activity has already... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from QT Quantitative tightening (QT), namely the shrinking of central banks’ balance sheets, is likely to play an active role alongside rising interest rates in the tightening of monetary policy over the... 15th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Only a small Omicron hit to industry so far While there is still time for Omicron waves to hit global supply chains, the manufacturing PMIs suggest that there has been limited disruption for now, especially outside China and the US. That said... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Omicron hit worse in the US than other DMs The Flash PMIs for January suggest that Omicron has dealt a big blow to both industry and services sectors in the US in recent weeks, while other DMs have got off more lightly. But with new cases... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What if energy prices keep rising? While ongoing supply shortages have led us to revise up our forecasts for crude oil and wholesale gas prices, we still expect significant falls this year which would reduce headline inflation in major... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on Omicron’s economic effects While it is very uncertain, we estimate that disruption due to Omicron could knock around 1% off GDP in advanced economies while the outbreak is at its height, mainly due to staff absences. This would... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read