Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Asset price bubbles – where are the greatest risks? We do not believe there is a bubble in government bonds. Bubbles are more likely to develop in emerging markets but are not yet widespread. Instead, our greatest concern is the high levels of... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus A fresh look at the lessons from Japan The financial markets seem confident that the West can avoid the prolonged period of economic stagnation and price deflation that took hold of Japan in the 1990s. Looking back again at the Japanese... 22nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 Emerging markets have, on the whole, weathered the crisis in the global economy well. But 2010 will bring a fresh set of challenges. Overall, we think Asia is best placed to prosper, followed by Latin... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is there still a serious deflationary threat? With the recovery in the global economy gaining momentum and conditions in many financial markets getting back to normal, the threat of deflation would seem to have receded. We agree that a full-blown... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus From banking crisis to fiscal crisis? The measures put in place by governments to support their banking sectors and economies have helped to avert a full-scale financial meltdown and a 1930s-style economic depression. But the full costs... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can Asia ride to the rescue? The global crisis has driven home the need for Asia to do more to expand domestic demand. But in every part of Asia there are frictions which mean the necessary policy shift will be drawn out. As a... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could SDRs supplant the dollar? IMF Special Drawing Rights will not emerge as a reserve asset to challenge the dollar, but they could be used to reduce the risks of a destabilising flight by reserve holders from the US currency. 14th July 2009 · 33 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lessons from the Nordic financial crises of the 1990s The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will the green shoots flourish or wilt? The recent bounce in financial markets, notably equities, seems justified by the improvements in the business surveys and the stabilisation in consumer confidence. However, further large gains from... 14th May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Emerging Markets - another disaster? Both Latin America and Emerging Europe will enter deep recessions this year and, in the absence of a strong global recovery, the pain is likely to extend well into 2010. But whereas Latin America has... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could China end up making things worse in 2009? 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will quantitative easing work? Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read