Global Economics Focus Are policymakers going soft on inflation? Recent and prospective changes in the conduct of monetary policy suggest that policymakers may be willing to take slightly greater risks with inflation than they were previously. But we expect... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the deleveraging process over? Five years after the financial crisis, there is growing optimism that the world economy is finally on the mend. However, the deleveraging process is far from complete. Further public sector austerity... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What’s needed for a stronger global recovery? If it were not for the euro-zone crisis, world economic growth would probably gather pace next year. Prospects for the US are brightening, there has been significant progress with private sector... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are the prospects for global growth until 2020? Even when the dust finally settles from the global financial crisis, we doubt that the world will return to the high growth rates achieved before 2008. Slower expansion of the labour force, the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What more can central banks do? Many commentators argue that central banks in advanced economies have all but run out of ammunition. We disagree. Admittedly, the room for further conventional policy stimulus is fairly limited, but... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How would break-up of the euro affect the rest of the world? A partial break-up of the euro-zone, with the weakest economies leaving and the core holding together, could be part of the solution to Europe’s problems, rather than the disaster that many assume. As... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What can emerging economies do to help the rest of the world? Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why do countries default and what are the consequences? History suggests that in many cases a sovereign default ultimately proves to be a good thing for the country concerned, as it can set the stage for economic recovery. This is more likely to be the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read