Global Economics Focus Will inflation ever pick up again? We think the average inflation rate in advanced economies will remain lower than it was in the pre-crisis period for the foreseeable future, for several reasons. In some economies, there is more spare... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will high levels of debt weigh on global growth? Although debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies remain high by historical standards, they are at least on sustainable trajectories. Accordingly, fiscal austerity and household deleveraging appear to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are the world’s banks back to normal? If “normal” means the under-regulated and over-leveraged state that they were in before the crisis, then that is the last thing we need the world’s banks to return to. Thankfully, however, that does... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The causes of the financial crisis The seeds of the financial crisis were sown in the interaction of four key factors, linked by one critical underlying problem. This was an intellectual failure across financial institutions... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus History does not support pessimism about productivity potential Pessimism about the potential for future productivity growth and hence increases in living standards, based on recent poor productivity performance, is not well-founded. It provides no good reason to... 1st November 2017 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Focus How will the world cope with tighter monetary policy? We expect global growth to slow only modestly as the era of easy money starts drawing to a close. The monetary tightening is set to be gradual, limited and staggered, with some countries only starting... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the world now back to full employment? The unemployment rate in most advanced economies is now lower than it was on the eve of the financial crisis. However, the “natural” rate of unemployment has probably fallen and the supply of labour... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is central bank independence under threat? Despite the criticisms levelled at them over the past year, central banks are not likely to be stripped of their independence anytime soon, or have their mandates radically changed. Politicians who... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the Phillips Curve dead? The forces which have weakened the relationship between unemployment and inflation in recent decades are likely to persist, or even gather strength, in the coming years. If so, wage and price... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus World trade in the Trump era The election of Donald Trump is the clearest expression so far of the growing anti-globalisation sentiment across advanced economies. Initially at least, we think that his bark will prove to be worse... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will global demand remain weak? Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is there too much debt in the world? In our view, the claim that there is too much debt in the world is simplistic. High and rising debt burdens are a serious concern in some countries, including China and Japan. But debt burdens in most... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy? If the UK votes to leave the EU, there would probably be some negative fallout for the UK itself and other European economies due to the resulting uncertainty about their future economic relationship... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are lower oil prices good or bad for the world economy? This Focus addresses two of the biggest concerns which have undermined confidence in the global economy and markets this year: worries over China and the further slump in the oil price. While... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read