Global Economics Update Trump shock: What to expect next on tariffs Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market but, as President Donald Trump is now finding out, the equity market can be pretty intimidating... 6th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Outlook still gloomy despite tariff relief Canadian exporters escaped “Liberation Day” relatively unscathed and, thanks to more stringent measures on other economies, have even been gifted a competitive advantage in some industries by the US’... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA could cut rates further, as headwinds mount Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is likely to be modest, we believe second-order effects could be more damaging, due to negative spillovers from key trading partners... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump makes Canada okay again Canada has escaped much more lightly than we feared from President Trump’s big announcement, with the import-weighted US tariff likely to be 8% based on current plans and potentially below 5% in the... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit in February was driven by stronger exports, mainly of non-monetary gold, while imports remained at record levels, as businesses continued to rush orders ahead of... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb 2025) The large fall in exports in February was to be expected given the (albeit temporary) imposition of tariffs on goods imports into the US that month. While Canada may have gotten off relatively lightly... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs and our downgraded forecast for the S&P 500 We are significantly downgrading our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 for two key reasons. The first is yesterday’s announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed. In such... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) The easing in house price growth in both February and March suggests momentum in the housing market is waning. What’s more, as we now think the Bank of England will press pause on the interest rate... 2nd April 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Scenarios of what US tariffs mean for the UK economy Our scenarios of how different rates of US tariffs on UK exports could influence the UK are designed to provide clients with some real-time context when President Trump announces tariffs tonight... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will “Liberation Day” free the market from its shackles? Volatility in the US stock market hasn’t picked up sharply since Donald Trump returned to the White House, despite a very high degree of uncertainty about his economic policies. That may remain the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
