Canada Economic Outlook Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in... 26th March 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2024) The fairly large gain in house prices in January points to a rebound in price growth driven by the fall in mortgage rates towards the end of last year. Although its early in the year, today’s data fit... 26th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up... 26th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population growth to plunge The government’s plan to cut temporary resident numbers over 2025 to 2027 will result in the weakest three years for population growth in Canada’s 157-year history. While it might not be enough to... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Renting to remain substantially cheaper than buying As mortgage rates fall, we think the difference between the cost of buying and renting will narrow from the current all-time highs. But even by 2026, renting will remain by far the more cost-effective... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2024) February’s tiny drop in new home sales cut short what appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in recent months. Even though the drop was extremely small, it still potentially casts some doubt over... 25th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Inflation: From too high to too low After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI... 25th March 2024 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Stars aligning for a June interest rate cut The surprise fall in February leaves CPI inflation on track to average 2.8% this quarter, well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3.2%. As the decline in inflation pressures was broad-based, there... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE preparing the ground for interest rate cuts Two key developments at this week’s Bank of England policy meeting implied the Bank is shifting closer to cutting interest rates. And more striking were the comments by the Bank Governor in an... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but... 22nd March 2024 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024) Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read