Jonathan Loynes, our Chief Economist, discusses the following:
- What has changed since the financial crisis?
- What are the risks of a new one?
- The outlook for the US, Europe & Japan.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, our Senior China Economist, discusses the following:
- Will recent strong growth last through 2018?
- Are Xi Jinping’s reforms addressing China’s problems?
- How fast will China’s economy growth over the next decade?
Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discusses the following:
- Would a slowdown in China hurt the rest of the world?
- Which countries would be most exposed?
- How would slower growth in China reshape the global outlook?
Paul Dales, our Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist, discusses the following:
- The outlook for the next two years.
- Our different views on growth, inflation and interest rates.
- What is the outlook for the next 10 years?
- Which sectors will provide the next boom?
- What does all this mean for the financial markets?
Ten years after the financial crisis, our Annual Conferences in Australia asked “Is the global economy finally back to health?” We looked at what has changed in the world economy and developed world financial sectors since the crisis and what these changes suggest about the risks of a new crisis occurring. We then considered the outlook for the US, EU and Japan before turning to China, the largest contributor to global growth over the past decade. We explained why the concentration of power in China around Xi Jinping was likely to result in a continued deceleration in trend growth there so that China was much less likely to be a significant outperformer in future. That slowdown, we argued, would have very different impacts in different parts of the world. Finally, we focused in detail on prospects for Australia as it looks to life after its mining boom.
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