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Emerging Markets Forecast Forum 2018

20 February, 2018
The RAC, London

Economies across the emerging world have been recording strong growth recently. At our Emerging Markets Forecast Forum, Is the EM cycle about to turn?”, we discussed why we believe that more difficult times lie ahead. Central to this view is our expectation that China’s growth will slow – we explained why Xi Jinping’s concentration of power should be particularly concerning for investors. Against that backdrop, many other EMs will struggle. But not all, and we highlighted those that should perform well. We also took an in-depth look at Africa’s prospects as South Africa’s leadership changes and signs emerge of a manufacturing-led turnaround in parts of the continent. Finally, we asked how these developments are likely to affect emerging financial markets.

  • The coming slowdown in China

    Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discusses the following:

    • Will recent strong growth last through 2018?
    • Are Xi Jinping’s reforms addressing China’s problems?
    • How fast will China’s economy grow over the next decade?

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  • Will Africa be the next EM powerhouse?

    John Ashbourne, our Africa Economist, discusses the following:

    • What is the short-term outlook for Africa?
    • Over the longer term, can Africa follow the path of the Asian EMs?
    • What parts of the region will outperform?
    • Can Ramaphosa turn South Africa around?

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  • What’s the outlook for the rest of the emerging world?

    Neil Shearing, our Chief Emerging Markets Economist, discusses the following:

    • Latest on the EM recovery.
    • Outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates over the next 1-2 years.
    • Outlook for EMs over a 5-10 year horizon – where is the consensus wrong?

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  • The implications for EM financial markets

    Oliver Jones, our Markets Economist, discusses the following:

    • A recap of the outlook for economic growth and monetary policy.
    • The near-term outlook for EM bonds, equities and currencies.
    • The long-term outlook for EM financial markets.

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