Europe Economics Update Irish statistical quirks flattering EZ growth rate Euro-zone industrial production and GDP have been stronger than we had expected so far this year. Several factors have contributed to this, but one of them is the distortions to Ireland’s economic... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest... 9th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why our euro-zone GDP forecast is below consensus Despite energy price caps and direct support for households, we think euro-zone private consumption will fall further than most anticipate in the coming months, and we expect investment and exports to... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Don’t miss the bigger picture in natural gas markets While front-month European natural gas prices have fallen sharply as concerns have eased around shortages this winter, longer-dated futures haven’t fallen by as much. That reflects how difficult it... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Goods price pressures still intense The recent easing of global supply chain problems could put some downward pressure on euro-zone goods inflation soon. But equipment shortages are still a major problem for manufacturers, while their... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: moderate finance minister won’t save BTPs Italy’s new government may initially steer clear of major fiscal loosening, but it will have to provide some more support to cushion the blow from the energy crisis. Given Italy’s fiscal... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Low Swiss inflation will keep pressure off SNB The low level of inflation in Switzerland compared to the euro-zone mainly reflects smaller contributions from energy and food. But core inflation is lower too, helped by the exchange rate and... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB (like BoE) likely to re-start asset purchases soon The UK financial crisis is a self-inflicted wound, but the sell-off in gilts underlines that there is less fiscal room for manoeuvre than there was when policy rates were close to zero. We think the... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France adds a pinch of prudence to its fiscal support The UK government has not been alone in announcing new fiscal measures in recent days. The French government’s plan to stabilise the budget deficit at 5% of GDP next year looks optimistic, given its... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from Italy’s general election With Italy’s general election scheduled to take place this weekend, this Update answers six key questions about what to expect in the days and months following the vote. In view of the wider interest... 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to follow Japan with FX intervention Direct FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro is not out of the question, but we think that it would take a much bigger depreciation of the single currency to force policymakers to act. 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read