Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden GDP Indicator (Q2) & ETI (Jul.) The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics ECB reinforces commitment to keep rates low The ECB followed through on its strategy review today by raising the bar for interest rate hikes in language which was probably a touch more dovish than expected. The Bank made no change to its... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t trigger fresh lockdowns The pick-up in the euro-zone’s vaccine rollout means governments are unlikely to reintroduce significant new restrictions even as cases rise. So while the Delta variant might take some of the gloss... 21st July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics New guidance will set the bar higher for rate hikes The ECB will set out next week what its new strategy implies for its monetary policy. Having nudged up the target to a symmetrical 2% and stressed that it will tolerate some overshooting, the... 15th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Investors’ ECB rate hike expectations look premature There has been very little market reaction to the ECB raising its inflation target to 2%, probably because the change was broadly in line with expectations. But markets are discounting ECB rate hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read