Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norges Bank treading water before taking the plunge The Norges Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold at zero next Thursday (19 th August), but it will almost certainly start to raise them, and tighten macroprudential policy further, in September. 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (June) The second successive monthly fall in euro-zone industrial production in June was largely due to ongoing supply-chain difficulties in Germany. As these will ease only slowly, we don’t expect industry... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weak wage growth trumps strong price pressures The latest data show pipeline price pressures continuing to mount in the euro-zone, pointing on the face of it to much higher consumer price inflation. But while there is arguably scope for a small... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics German Industrial Production (June) The further decline in German industrial output in June, to 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level, underlines that the problems in the auto sector will hold back an otherwise strong economic recovery. It... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final PMIs (July) and Retail Sales (June) The final PMIs show that the euro-zone’s recovery continued apace at the start of Q3. Price pressures are continuing to mount and point to an increase in inflation in the coming months, but we expect... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Iceland’s shorter working week not a holy grail The success of reduced working hour trials in Iceland was largely founded on adopting better working practices which, if embraced elsewhere, might offer no-cost ways of achieving better work-life... 30th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Reopening effects to persist in Q3 The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read