Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Grim outlook for Pacific coal prices The usual seasonal uplift in demand should support the price of Pacific coal until end-2019. However, we expect average prices to fall in the years ahead owing in large part to weaker demand prospects... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update The EU’s new energy policy will be no game-changer The policies of the next European Commission are likely to speed up the EU’s ongoing transition towards a greener energy future. However, its impact will probably not live up to expectations. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trade escalation and G7 do not change our oil view While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Any UK petroleum reserve sell-off would be small beer A no deal Brexit later this year could mean that the UK government decides to substantially reduce its strategic reserves of petroleum products. But even after a reduction, the UK’s reserves should... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to remain low The dramatic narrowing of the spread between the prices of Brent and WTI oil in the last month, reflects a structural change in the market as logistical bottlenecks in the US are being resolved. As... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Little respite for LNG prices likely before 2021 The raft of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the works suggests that the downward pressure on prices from surging global supply will continue this year and next. But with demand growth set to... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A flood of LNG to keep a lid on EU natural gas prices In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the... 1st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ will not succeed in lowering crude stocks We think that the OPEC+ production cuts will fail to reduce global crude stocks. Instead, we expect soft demand growth and rising global supply, particularly from the US, to push stocks higher in the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risk to oil supply of US-Iran tensions Concerns about a shortfall in global oil supply have resurfaced as a result of the escalation in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. But we think there are four key reasons why the risk to supply... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Extension of OPEC cuts not an open-and-shut case Market moves in the wake of this weekend’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting suggest that some investors expect OPEC to roll over output cuts when they expire in June. In contrast... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read