Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Slump in króna points to unchanged Icelandic rates At its last meeting in June, when it cut interest rates for the second time this year, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left the door open to further rate cuts. But given that the króna has slumped... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue hinting at 2018 taper We expect the ECB to renew its hints of future QE tapering at its forthcoming meeting, despite the modest tightening of financial market conditions that such hints have caused already. We still see... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to drop easing bias Since the Riksbank last met in April, underlying inflation has been stronger than expected, international political risks have diminished and economic conditions in Sweden’s trading partners have... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to cut interest rate forecast The Norges Bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting in June, but we think that it will revise its rate forecast down. After all, while economic growth has strengthened since the... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise The Swiss National Bank will once again stress after its meeting on 15th June that it remains prepared to act to prevent any significant renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc. Granted, the recent... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to remain on hold for now Ahead of next week’s meeting, today’s soft GDP data are unlikely to concern the Central Bank of Iceland too much. The fact that last month’s interest rate cut has done little to stem the króna’s... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to tweak its forward guidance At its meeting on 8th June, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance, dropping the references to lower interest rates and expanding QE. But Mr Draghi will want to avoid stoking expectations of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rate cut on the cards Following the sharp drop in the Icelandic króna after the lifting of capital controls in March, we pushed back our forecast for an Icelandic interest rate cut from May to August. But since the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to continue signalling possible rate cut The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. After all, the Bank will not be updating its forecasts, and there has been little to change policymakers’... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still no hints of policy tightening The ECB is likely to stick to the script this month, with a weak outlook for underlying inflation justifying its plan to buy assets until at least the end of the year. The Bank will probably drop the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to signal end of asset purchases As next week’s monetary policy meeting is the last before asset purchases are set to end in June, the Riksbank will probably signal whether they will be extended. While CPIF inflation, which excludes... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Norges Bank respond to falling inflation? We think that the Norges Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. While inflation has fallen much more quickly than policymakers expected, accelerating house prices are a... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Inflation rise won’t stop SNB fighting strong franc The Swiss National Bank will reiterate after its meeting on 16th March that it remains fully prepared to act to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Although... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be cut soon despite strong economy Ahead of the Central Bank of Iceland’s meeting next week, today’s data revealed that Icelandic GDP expanded by a strong 2.6% in Q4. Despite the strength of the economy, the recent appreciation of the... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to treat growth pick-up with caution The recent run of positive data may lead the ECB to judge that downside risks to the economic outlook have receded when it meets next week. But core inflation has remained low despite the rise in the... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to maintain dovish tone for now Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read