ECB Watch Dovish tone to hint at action next month We doubt that recent events and data releases have been significant enough to ensure more policy action from the ECB at its May meeting. But developments in the inflation outlook and in money markets... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch - More policy action still ahead Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small rate cut? While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB needs to follow words with action With the strong euro maintaining the risk of deflation in the euro-zone and inter-bank interest rates edging higher, the ECB’s Governing Council will need to follow up President Mario Draghi’s dovish... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB has more work to do in 2014 The ECB’s Governing Council appears unlikely to make any substantive policy changes at its first policy meeting of the year on 9th January. But the ongoing combination of weak economic growth, a... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Time to talk about the euro? Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer stance With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More LTROs in the pipeline? The firmer tone of the economic data has ruled out any change in interest rates at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 2nd October, while the US Federal Reserve’s recent communication problems will... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Moving towards a rate cut? With indicators of economic activity improving slightly, the ECB is unlikely to cut interest rates this month. Meanwhile, divisions within the Governing Council might prevent it from clarifying last... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still mulling more support; exit remains distant With the news that the US Fed is set to taper its QE programme hitting euro-zone financial markets, President Draghi should provide reassurance about ongoing ECB policy support at the forthcoming... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Surveying the zero bound with caution After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer tone but no action The crisis in Cyprus, together with the continued deterioration in indicators of euro-zone economic activity, should lead the ECB to strike a more supportive tone at this month’s press conference. But... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Support for Italy would come with strings attached The renewed deterioration in some indicators of economic activity and fears about the political situation in Italy should prompt the ECB to strike a softer tone after its next meeting. President... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to shrug off currency concerns The continued improvement in financial market conditions and surveys of economic activity has taken some of the pressure off the ECB this month. We expect the Bank to strike a relatively hawkish tone... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read